Developing retail performance measurement and financial distress prediction systems by using credit scoring techniques

The current research develops a theoretical framework based on the ResourceAdvantage Theory of Competition (Hunt, 2000) for the selection of appropriate variables. Using a review of the literature as well as to interviews and a survey, 170 potential retail performance variables were identified as possible for inclusion in the model. To produce a relative simple model with the aim of avoiding over-fitting, a limited number of key variables or principal components were selected to predict default. Five credit-scoring techniques: Naive Bayes, Logistic Regression, Recursive Partitioning, Artificial Neural Network, and Sequential Minimal Optimization (SMO) were employed on a sample of 195 healthy and 51 distressed businesses from the USA market over five time periods: 1994-1998, 1995-1999, 1996-2000, 1997-2001 and 1998-2002.Analyses provide sufficient evidence that the five credit scoring methodologies have sound classification ability in the year before financial distress. Moreover, they still remained sound even five years prior to financial distress. However, it is difficult to conclude which modelling technique has the highest classification ability uniformly, since model performance varied in terms of different time scales. The analysis also showed that external environment influences do impact on default assessment for all five credit-scoring techniques, but these influences are weak. These findings indicate that the developed models are theoretically sound. There is however a need to compare their performance to other approaches.To explore the issue of the model's performance two approaches are taken. First, rankings from the study were compared with those from a standard rating system—in this case the well-established Moody's Credit Rating. It is assumed that the higher the degree of similarity between the two sets of rankings, the greater the credibility of the prediction model. The results indicated that the logistic regression model and the SMO model were most comparable with Moody's. Secondly, the model's performance was assessed by applying it to different geographical areas. The original USA model was therefore applied to a new US data set as well as the European and Japanese markets. Results indicated that all market models displayed similar discriminating ability one year prior to financial distress. However, the USA model performed relatively better than European and Japanese models five years before financial distress. This implied that a financial distress model has potentially better prediction ability when based on a single market.Following this result it was decided to explore the performance of a generic global model, since model construction is time-consuming and costly. A composite model was constructed by combining data from USA, European and Japanese markets. This composite model had sound prediction performance, even up to five years before financial distress, as the accuracy rate was above 85.15% and AUROC value was above 0.7202. Comparing with the original USA model, the composite model has similar prediction performance in terms of the accuracy rate. However, the composite model presented a worse prediction utility based on the AUROC value. A future research direction might be to include more world retailing markets in order to ensure the model's prediction utility and practical applicability

A-priori Validation of Subgrid-scale Models for Astrophysical Turbulence

We perform a-priori validation tests of subgrid-scale (SGS) models for the turbulent transport of momentum, energy and passive scalars. To this end, we conduct two sets of high-resolution hydrodynamical simulations with a Lagrangian code: an isothermal turbulent box with rms Mach number of 0.3, 2 and 8, and the classical wind tunnel where a cold cloud traveling through a hot medium gradually dissolves due to fluid instabilities. Two SGS models are examined: the eddy diffusivity (ED) model wildly adopted in astrophysical simulations and the "gradient model" due to Clark et al. (1979). We find that both models predict the magnitude of the SGS terms equally well (correlation coefficient > 0.8). However, the gradient model provides excellent predictions on the orientation and shape of the SGS terms while the ED model predicts poorly on both, indicating that isotropic diffusion is a poor approximation of the instantaneous turbulent transport. The best-fit coefficient of the gradient model is in the range of [0.16, 0.21] for the momentum transport, and the turbulent Schmidt number and Prandtl number are both close to unity, in the range of [0.92, 1.15].Comment: ApJ accepted; analysis code available at https://github.com/huchiayu/Lapriori.j

Complementary Therapy with Traditional Chinese Medicine for Ischemic Stroke

Stroke has remained the leading cause of morbidity or mortality worldwide over the past decade. Stroke survivors suffer various degrees of disability and also contribute to the large socioeconomic disease burden. Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) serves as an important alternative or complementary therapy in many countries. This chapter aims to explore the utility of TCM for ischemic stroke, including a review of recent literature on the mechanisms of herbal medicine and acupuncture therapy on ischemic stroke, a summary of clinical trial results for the safety and efficacy of acupuncture, and finally a discussion of acupuncture as a preventive therapy for ischemic stroke in clinical practice. On the basis of these reports, more and more scientific evidences suggest that TCM use was safe for ischemic stroke at acute and subacute stages. Moreover, TCM has benefit for stroke recovery as well as it reduces the likelihood of hospital readmission for cardiovascular or subsequent stroke events

Complementary and Alternative Therapy with Traditional Chinese Medicine for Infertility

Infertility results in a country with a low birth rate and an aging population, and thus there is vested interest in treating this problem by using both complementary and alternative therapies, in addition to conventional western medicine. Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) has been widely used for healthcare in the Eastern world for thousands of years. This chapter describes the evidence to support the role of TCM in the management of male and female infertility

Complementary Therapy with Traditional Chinese Medicine for Polycystic Ovarian Syndrome

Polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS) is a common, heterogeneous, complex, endocrinopathic condition that causes menstrual dysfunction and infertility in women. Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) has been widely used for PCOS in Far-East countries for thousands of years. There are significant advantages in treating PCOS with TCM. This chapter aims to investigate the current developments in TCM therapy for PCOS

Complementary Traditional Chinese Medicine Therapy for Traumatic Brain Injury

The number of cases of traumatic brain injury (TBI) is increasing daily, predominantly because of the increasing rate of motor vehicle accidents. TBI has become one of the major causes of mortality and morbidity worldwide among individuals of all ages. TBI-inducing accidents usually occur very suddenly, leading to a heavy burden for both families and society at large. Beside conventional treatments such as surgery, medication, and rehabilitation, traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) is a promising complementary therapy that is practiced worldwide. This chapter will investigate the advances in TCM therapy for TBI

Complementary Therapy with Traditional Chinese Medicine for Neonatal Hypoxic Ischemic Encephalopathy

Hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) is one of the most significant causes of morbidity, mortality, and lifelong disability in newborns. The diagnosis of neonatal HIE is based on the dysfunction of neurogenic signs and classification according to the Sarnat staging system, which evaluates conscious level, neuromuscular control, complex reflexes, autonomic function, seizures, electroencephalogram readings, and duration of neurologic sign. There is no standard treatment for neonatal HIE, but it is widely accepted that hypothermia therapy is a safe and effective method for treating neonates with HIE. Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) has recently been used to treat cases of neonatal HIE, especially herbal medicine prescriptions. Acupuncture is a common method used in TCM and is another promising therapy for neonatal HIE due to its demonstrated effective treatment of the disease in animal models. While there is a lack of direct evidence in clinical practice, we have observed acupuncture to be useful in adult HIE and in animal studies; therefore, we believe a clinical trial designed to evaluate the effectiveness of acupuncture in neonatal HIE treatment is worthwhile. Taken together, TCM is a promising technique that can be integrated into the conventional therapies for neonatal HIE

Complementary Therapy with Traditional Chinese Medicine for Treating Atherosclerosis-Related Diseases

Atherosclerosis-related diseases are the leading cause of morbidity or mortality in the world. They result in serious outcomes such as sudden cardiac death, unstable angina pectoris, acute myocardial infarction, stroke, or intermittent claudication due to vessel obliteration or plaque rupture with subsequent thrombosis. There are some limitations with standard treatments such as antiplatelet drugs, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, beta-blockers, coronary artery bypass surgery, and percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty. Therefore, complementary and alternative medicine is necessary for medication. Traditional Chinese medicine is the main complementary therapy used in the Chinese community. This article aims to explore complementary therapy with traditional Chinese medication for atherosclerosis-related diseases. There is some scientific evidence to support that traditional Chinese medicine could treat atherosclerosis and its associated conditions. Acupuncture through needling on ST36, ST40, PC6, or BL15 could alleviate atherosclerosis-related cardiovascular diseases. Tai chi and meditation have beneficial effects for mental and physical health. In addition, extracts or compounds of single Chinese herbs such as Salvia miltiorrhiza, Panax notoginseng, Ginkgo biloba, Curcuma longa, Crataegus pinnatifida, Paeonia lactiflora, Prunella vulgaris, Polygonum multiflorum, Coptis chinensis, and red yeast rice also could treat atherosclerosis-related diseases through their endothelial protective, antioxidative, anti-inflammatory, inhibiting of smooth muscle cells proliferation, and lipid-lowering effects. In accordance with evidence-based medicine, well-designed and conducted clinical studies such as randomized control clinical trials will be necessary in the future